Lexus Melbourne Cup early form guide
Gold Trip (FR) 7yoH 58.5kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Career: 24: 3-5 -5Last start: 5th of 12 Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m)
Aiming to become the first horse to win back-to-back Melbourne Cups since Makybe Diva. Was a dominant winner last year, and going equally as well this spring, winning the Turnbull Stakes, finishing third as top weight in the Caulfield Cup and closing late for fifth in the Cox Plate. Also grows a leg on soft ground. The big query is the weight. Rises 1kg on last year. The last horse to successfully carry 58.5kg to victory was Think Big in 1975.
Danny's Tip: Top 3.
Without A Fight (IRE) 7yoG 56.5kg
Trainer: Anthony & Sam Freedman
Career: 22: 10-3-4
Last start: 1st of 18 Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
He finished a disappointing 21 lengths behind Gold Trip in last year’s Melbourne Cup – the Irish import’s first run in Australia – but has since thrived under the guidance of Anthony and Sam Freedman, dominating the Queensland winter carnival and winning the Caulfield Cup. Penalised 1kg on the Caulfield Cup run and still a slight query at the distance. But a big chance to become the first horse in 22 years to win the Cups double. Significant that Mark Zahra has chosen to ride Without A Fight ahead of Gold Trip.
Danny's Tip: Top 5.
Alenquer (FR) 6yoG 56.5kg
Trainer: Michael Moroney
Career: 18: 5-2-1
Last start: 9th of 14 Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m)
Highly regarded international credentials. Alenquer is a Group 1 winner in Ireland over 2112m and finished a credible ninth in last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. But the import has struggled to make any imprint on Australian racing in five starts since joining Mike Moroney’s stables. Does have a fairytale factor in that he will be Damien Oliver’s last Melbourne Cup ride.
Danny's Tip: Will appreciate all of Ollie's experience and skill in his 32nd and final Melbourne Cup ride!
Breakup (JPN) 6yoH 55kg
Trainer: Tatsuya Yoshioka
Career: 22: 5-3-4
Last start: 8th of 18 Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
A Japanese stayer who ran fourth in this year’s Group 1 Tenno Sho (3200m). That is impeccable form for the Lexus Melbourne Cup. Looked a winning chance in the Caulfield Cup as the field turned for home, but was a touch flat-footed, finishing 8th. Will be suited by the step up in distance, and will be suited if the track is firm.
Danny's Tip: Top 5.
Vauban (FR) 6yoG 55kg
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Career: 6: 4-0-0
Last start: 1st of 8 Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes, Naas (2414m)
Race favourite. Hard to go past his seven-length romp at Royal Ascot in June when he put paid to Cup rivals Absurde and More Felons by more than seven lengths. He then won the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes at Naas, beating another Cup runner Valiant King by 1.5 lengths. Looks well weighted at 55kg. Vauban is also a Group 1 winner over hurdles. Irish trainer Willie Mullins knows the right horse to bring to Australia, having had another hurdler Max Dynamite run second in the 2015 Melbourne Cup and third two years later.
Danny's Tip: Top 3.
Soulcombe (GB) 5yoG 53.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career: 15: 5-1-1
Last start: 7th of 18 Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
The horse is flying. Missed the kick by several lengths in the Caulfield Cup and cost itself any winning chance. The way he closed out the race suggests he will relish 3200m. A change of jockey with João Moreira securing the ride.
Danny's Tip: Top 3, if he jumps.
Absurde (Fr) 6yoG 53kg
Trainer: WIllie Mullins
Career: 13: 3-6-2
Last start: 1st of 22 Ebor Handicap, York (2816m)
Flying under the radar because of his more highly touted Irish stablemate Vauban. Absurde booked a trip Down Under by winning the Ebor Handicap at York in August, which is a golden-ticket race into the Melbourne Cup. No horse has won the Ebor-Melbourne Cup double, but Purple Moon and Heartbreak City went close, both running second in 2007 and 2016. Absurde was thrashed by Vauban at Royal Ascot in June.
Danny's Tip: Top 10.
Vow And Declare 8yoG 53kg
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Career: 37: 5-7-4
Last start: 2nd of 14 Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m)
The evergreen 2019 Lexus Melbourne Cup winner is racing in great heart in the twilight of his career, finishing second at Group 1 and Group 2 level at his past two starts. Was impressive in the Moonee Valley Cup after being caught wide and covering extra ground. But it is hard to see him climbing the mountain again after a 10th and 18th in his past two Melbourne Cups.
Danny's Tip: Top 10.
Right You Are 7yoG 53kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Career: 26: 10-4-4
Last start: 5th of 18 Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
The son of So You Think ran out of his skin to finish fifth in the Caulfield Cup and the stable is renowned for peaking their stayers at the right time. Has not raced beyond 2400m and up against some more fancied runners.
Danny's Tip: On verge of top 10.
Magical Lagoon 5yoM 51kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career: 13: 3-1-0
Last start: 6th of 13 Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)
Finished 1.1-length sixth in the Geelong Cup after taking up the lead and fighting to the line. Has not won a race in Australia. Did win the Irish Oaks at the Curragh in July 2022 over 2414m, but is yet untested over 3200.
Danny's Tip: Distance may be a challenge.
Virtuous Circle (NZ) 4yoH 51kg
Trainer: Liam Howley
Career: 13: 2-2-1
Last start: 8th of 13 Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)
A semi-spruik horse who was expected to be in the finish in the Geelong Cup but was left flat-footed and finished well back. Will need to improve significantly on that to be a Cup player. Peak run was a second in this year’s AJC Derby.
Danny's Tip: Second half of the field.
Lastotchka (FR) 5yoM 51kg
Trainer: Mick Price & Michael Kent Jr
Career: 11: 3-2-1
Last start: 1st of 7 Group 3 Prix Gladiateur, Longchamp (3100m)
The race’s mystery runner. A two-time Group 3 winner in France over 2800m and 3100m who will have her first Australian start in the Lexus Melbourne Cup for Mick Price and Michael Kent Jr. Well weighted, but hard to line-up the form lines. French raiders have won the Cup, but Americain and Dunaden tuned up by winning the Geelong Cup first.
Danny's Tip: A mystery bet.
Future History (GB) 6yoG 50kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Career: 16: 6-4-1
Last start: 3rd of 14 Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m)
Gained a golden ticket into the Lexus Melbourne Cup by winning the Group 3 Bart Cummings (2520m) at Flemington on October 7. Capable of going forward with a lightweight and holding ground. The import joined the Maher-Eustace stable at the end of last year and has continued to improve and seems to be peaking at the right time.
Danny's Tip: Top 10.
Sheraz (FR) 7yoG 51.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career: 23: 4-5-2
Last start: 8th of 14 Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m)
Looks to be a wet tracker. Ran home well in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but could not match strides with the winner, Cleveland. Ran second on a heavy track in last year’s Sydney Cup, but has not won in 12 starts in Australia.
Danny's Tip: Would love some rain.
Daqiansweet Junior (NZ) 6yoG 51.5kg
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Career: 27: 7-1-2
Last start: 4th of 9 Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes, Caulfield (2400m)
Ran a bottler in last year’s Melbourne Cup, finishing sixth and looks to be a horse that relishes the two miles. Has not set the world on fire in five runs since, but might just be looking towards the 3200m again.
Danny's Tip: Just outside top 10.
Valiant King (GB) 4yoH 50kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Career: 8: 1-3-1
Last start: 6th of 18 Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
The lightly raced Joseph O’Brien import carries the minimum weight – 50kg – and is looming as a sleeping giant. Was one of the runs of the race in the Caulfield Cup, being buried away on the fence and then losing momentum after copping interference in the run to the post. Ran 1.5-length second to Cup favourite Vauban over 2414m in Ireland.
Danny's Tip: Top 6.
Ashrun (FR) 8yoG 50kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Career: 17: 4-3-1
Last start: 2nd of 13 Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)
A testament to the patience of the Maher and Eustace partnership, considering Ashrun was off the scene for more than a 1000 days with a tendon injury. Won the Group 3 Hotham Stakes at its second run in Australia in 2020 and finished 10th in the Melbourne Cup three days later. Has been working back to full fitness with a strong second in the Geelong Cup.
Danny's Tip: Top 10.
Cleveland (IRE) 6yoH 51.5kg
Trainer: Kris Lees
Career: 15: 3-3-0
Last start: 1st of 14 Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m)
Lloyd Williams-owned import that could give the Leviathan owner his eighth Cup win after an impressive win in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Trained by Kris Lees at Newcastle, Cleveland has a win in the UK over 3749m so will have no trouble covering the Cup distance. The last horse to springboard out of the MV Cup to win the Melbourne Cup was Prince of Penzance in 2015.
Danny's Tip: Top 10.
Okita Soushi (IRE) 6yoH 51.5kg
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Career: 13: 4-2-3
Last start: 12th of 18 Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Jumped into the field after a number of withdrawals in the past fortnight. A stablemate to Valiant King, the six-year-old looks to living in the shadows of stable mate. Not quite the form of his international rivals and finished 10 lengths behind the Caulfield Cup winner. Will handle the extra ground.
Danny's Tip: Unwanted by the punters.
Military Mission (IRE) 6yoG 51kg
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Career: 27: 7-5-3
Last start: 1st of 9 Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes, Caulfield (2400m)
Consistent galloper who has been kept in cotton wool since a convincing win in the Herbert Power Stakes. Waterhouse has entered him for Saturday’s Lexus Archer Stakes, but is yet to make a decision on him running. Lloyd Williams pair Yucatan and Assign won the Herbert Power and then finished outside the top 10 in the Melbourne Cup at their next start.
Prospects: Unproven at this distance.
King Frankel (IRE) 6yoG 51kg
Trainer: Annabel Neasham
Career: 22: 5-5-3
Last start: 9th of 13 Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)
Not showing too much form. One run at 3200m – 13th of 18 in the Sydney Cup – and finished 5.5-lengths ninth in what looked to be a moderate Geelong Cup.
Danny's Tip: Needs a change of form.
Serpentine (IRE) 7yoG 51kg
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott
Career: 21: 3-3-1
Last start: 3rd of 16 Group 3 Bart Cummings, Flemington (2520m)
The 2020 Epsom Derby winner led last year’s Melbourne Cup for a period before finishing 20th. Lloyd Williams-owned and Gai Waterhouse trained is usually a good sign.
Danny's Tip: Would be a bit of an upset.
More Felons (IRE) 5yoG 50.5kg
Trainer: Chris Waller
Career: 14: 4-2-0
Last start: 5th of 13 Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m)
Was elevated into the field after final acceptances. The run of the race in the Geelong Cup, making up late ground out wide to finish less than a length behind the winner in fifth. That was the gelding’s first run for Chris Waller. Finished eighth in the Ebor at York behind Absurde, but capable of big improvement.
Danny's Tip: Top 10.
True Marvel (FR) 8yoG 50kg
Trainer: Matthew Smith
Career: 53: 8-7-5
Last start: 10th of 14 Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m)
Ran the race of his life to finish second on a heavy track in this year’s Sydney Cup over 3200m at 150-1, but hasn't repeated that form since.
Danny's Tip: Will be a longshot.
Ladies Man (NZ) 6yoG 50kg
Trainer: Allan Sharrock
Career: 25: 8-5-5
Last start: 1st of 13 Group 1 Livamol Classic, Hasting (2040m)
On the verge of getting a start, sitting just outside the field. Never underestimate a Kiwi raider with a light weight. Ladies Man has placed over 3200m and won his last start at Group 1 level over 2040m in the Livamol Classic, a race won in the past by Melody Belle and Jimmy Choux. A gelding on the way up.
Danny's Tip: A good roughie.
Athabascan (FR) 5yoG 50kg
Trainer: John O’Shea
Career: 20: 3-2-4
Last start: 7th of 14 Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m)
O’Shea has had his eye on a Melbourne Cup start with his lightly raced French import all spring, but Athabascan has been cursed by bad luck in two Melbourne runs since winning at Group 3 level over 2400m in Sydney. Might need to run on Derby Day in the Lexus Archer Stakes to gain the last golden ticket, which is not ideal.
Danny's Tip: One to keep an eye on for 2024.
United Nations (IRE) 5yoH 50kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Career: 10: 2-2-1
Last start: 10th of 18 Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m)
Would need to win Saturday’s Lexus Archer Stakes to gain a start. The Irish import started 90-1 in the Caulfield Cup, drew wide, sat on the hot speed and finished midfield. It was a decent run.
Danny's Tip: Perhaps a year too early?
Fancy Man (IRE) 6yoG 50kg
Trainer: Annabel Neasham
Career: 24: 5-4-4
Last start: 11th of 14 Group 2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m)
Would need to win Saturday’s Lexus Archer Stakes to be guaranteed a start.
Danny's Tip: See how the Archer plays out.
Hasta La War 8yoG 50kg
Trainer: Sue Murphy
Career: 27: 8-4-4
Last start: 6th of 8 Hamilton Cup
The consistent stayer has battled this spring. Would need to win Wednesday’s Bendigo Cup (November 1) and cop a penalty to gain a start.
Danny's Tip: Bendigo Cup form will be crucial.
Kalapour (IRE) 7yoG 50kg
Trainer: Kris Lees
Career: 18: 4-3-4
Last start: 3rd of 10 St Leger Stakes, Randwick (2600m)
Has been racing consistently in weaker grades, but needs to win Saturday’s Lexus Archer Stakes to be guaranteed a start.
Danny's Tip: Needs a lot of luck.
Interpretation 6yoG 50kg
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Career: 15: 3-1-2
Last start: 9th of 16 Group 3 Bart Cummings, Flemington (2520m)
A highly regarded import that is yet to live up to expectations. Has been entered in the Bendigo Cup and Saturday’s Lexus Archer Stakes. Would need to win the first and gain a penalty, or win the second to earn a golden ticket into the Cup.
Danny's Tip: Keep an eye on this weeks racing.
Mostly Cloudy (IRE) 5yoG 50kg
Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
Career: 19: 6-1-3
Last start: 4th of 16 Group 3 Bart Cummings, Flemington (2520m)
A talented five year old that is peaking at the right time of the year. But would need to win the Lexus Archer Stakes to gain a start.
Danny's Tip: Top 10 if he gets in.
